                                  T H E

                          E S T A B  - L O I D
                    ---------------------------------
                    Issue #3                   2-1-86
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                A weekly electronic magazine for users of
                    The Establishment BBS (894-6526)
                    owned and operated by Thane Smith

                        Editor - Gene B. Williams

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                                (c) 1986

    THIS ISSUE:

         My own interest in this week's topic had always been rather
    low until about a yearor so ago. The first reports on nuclear
    winter were coming out. At about the same time, blind hatred for
    the Soviet Union and anything Soviet was reaching a peak. On
    another BBS (Lightning One) several users were talking about how
    terrific and exciting it would be to blow Moscow off the map, and
    were talking about how wonderful it is that we have bombs today
    that have more explosive power in a single weapon than all the
    power expended in World War II.
         This got me to thinking. In a way it struck me as being an
    extension of a child's fascination for playing guns, or comments
    such as, "You should really go see that movie. It's so bloody!"
         Right about this same time I saw the movie, "Testament" for
    the first time, which brought it home all the more. Then came the
    British movie, "Threads," and the documentary, "The 8th Day," and
    still another program that had various scientists (both American
    and Soviet) talking about the subject.
         I had been talking with a publisher in New York about doing
    a book on electronics for jr and sr high students. As yet we've
    never been quite able to come up with a decent table of contents
    on this project, but it *did* get me on a first name basis with
    their senior editor. I called him one morning to see about doing
    a book tentatively titled, "Nuclear War - Nuclear Winter." He
    jumped at the idea. That book is now under contract, with a
    quickly approaching deadline.
         In a way, all of you are a test audience. The article here,
    plus maybe a few more on the same topic (if you'll allow me to do
    it and show the interest) will help me to coordinate my own
    thoughts. Your responses and input - including your personal
    opinions - are important. Your questions on the topic are even
    more important since these will both get me to research the
    answers and let me know what exactly *you* want to know.
         Don't be afraid to be critical.
         This isn't necessarily a depressing topic. In some ways it's
    about the most heartening thing that has come about in quite a
    few years. As you read on, try to drop your emotions and view it
    objectively.
         As always, you're welcome to capture this to diskette or to
    your printer. (This is a good idea, really, since it gives you
    time to actually read, rather than just scan.) Share it with your
    friends, parents, teachers, or whoever. (I'd appreciate it if
    you'd let me know their reactions, too.)

                      NUCLEAR WAR - NUCLEAR WINTER
                                (part 1)

                             A Brief History

         At the turn of this century scientists were just beginning
    to study radioactive elements. A World's Fair back then had a
    very popular exhibit - "Come and See Your Bones." Radium was
    considered by some to be a cure-all, with ads cropping up in
    magazines across the world promising that a radium containing
    solution could cure arthritis, baldness, impotence and a variety
    of human ills.
         Just after World War I ("The War to End All Wars") Albert
    Einstein became a big name in science. His research, combined
    with the research of other scientists such as Roentgen, lead to
    the idea that an atomic chain reaction was possible if enough
    excess neutrons could be forced to collide with the nucleus, the
    element would become unstable, would then split and emit even
    more neutrons. These in turn would strike the nuclei of other
    atoms, cause them to split, emit more neutrons - and a chain
    reaction would be set up.
         Some scientists predicted that this chain reaction would be
    slow enough to control easily. It was seen as another cure-all.
    Predictions were made that by 1950 electric power would be so
    inexpensive that it couldn't be effectively metered.
         Others saw it as the possible "beginning of the end." As it
    turned out, the chain reaction was not only possible but
    inevitable. A radioactive material, the most well known being
    uranium, when concentrated into a pure mass would give off
    neutrons and other sub-atomic particles without any coaxing. Once
    enough of the material was gathered together in one place, the
    chunk of material would begin a chain reaction all on its own.
    This amount of material is called "critical mass."
         Below critical mass, the substance is dangerous only for the
    radiation it emits. At or above critical mass, chain reaction
    begins and - B O O M ! ! !
         The project in America that researched this as a weapon was
    the Manhatten Project. The location was New Mexico. Time -
    towards the end of World War II. The bombs developed here were
    the most powerful anyone had ever seen before. Instead of being
    rated in tons of explosive power, they were rated in kilotons.
         Two were dropped on Japan. Even those who had designed the
    bombs had no idea of the total overall effects. They didn't find
    out until sometime after. It had been planned that the pilots and
    crew would observe and photograph the effects. But within seconds
    the ground was hidden behind the flash, the firestorms and the
    flying debris.
         In 1952 the first hydrogen bomb was exploded. Although this
    bomb was small compared to present day nuclear devices, it still
    vaporized a large chunk of the island on which it was dropped.
         It didn't take the Soviet Union long to develop weapons of
    their own, and the arms race was officially ON!
         Since then over 1400 warheads have been tested. The
    stockpile of nuclear weapons has increased tremendously, as has
    the power and accuracy of these weapons.
         The total explosive force expended during World War II was
    the equivalent of 3 megatons - or 3 million tons of TNT. The
    existing stockpile of nuclear weapons is estimated to be the
    equivalent of 18,000 megatons. This breaks down to being about
    400 tons of explosive power for every man, woman and child on
    earth.
         The United States alone is building about 10 new warheads
    every day. Each of these roughly twice the power of all of World
    War II. A single, average submarine has enough power to
    annihilate 100 Soviet cities. (At present count, we have 37 such
    submarines.)
         Calculations show that less than 1% of the existing weapons
    could destroy every large or medium-sized city in the world. Add
    in the known and predictable aftereffects of radiation, fallout,
    fire, social and economic breakdown, and the actual destructive
    power becomes even higher.
         All this was frightening enough for the United States and
    the Soviets to get together in an effort towards disarmament, or
    at least a slow down in the number of new weapons being built.

                        Dinosaurs and an Ice Age

         Through all this, politicians and military leaders talked of
    "first strike capability" and "total retaliation capability." The
    first term describes a condition where the attacker strikes with
    enough force to make the enemy incapable of retaliation. The
    second describes the ability to counterattack, no matter how
    devastating the first attack is. Both the United States and the
    Soviet Union easily possess both capabilities.
         Still, the philosophy of studying the effects of nuclear war
    dealt with the effects of single warheads. Graphs were made to
    show how various weapons would affect various targets. Wind speed
    and direction were taken into account to show the path of the
    fallout.
         Meanwhile, another branch of science was sending the Mariner
    probes to study Mars. To their disappointment, photos from
    Mariner 9 (1971) of the surface were impossible, due to a planet-
    wide dust storm. Special instruments on board measured a sizeable
    drop in the surface temperature, caused by the sunlight being
    blocked out. In 1976 Viking showed that the effects of the
    temperature drop were still measurable.
         Science had a seemingly unrelated and unanswered question -
    what happened to the dinosaurs? Previous findings seemed to
    indicate that their extinction was brought about by an ice age.
    The problem was in trying to find what could possibly cause our
    planet to be thrown into such an ice age so suddenly.
         One theory was that a huge meteor or comet had crashed into
    the earth, sending up a massive cloud of dust and debris. It was
    difficult for most to accept this theory. For one thing, if such
    a meteor hit the earth, there should be some sign of it - right?
    A relatively small chunk of meteorite hit in northern Arizona.
    The crater is not only still there, it has become a major tourist
    attraction.
         Several possible striking points have been suggested - the
    Bay of Biscay near France and Spain, for example. This didn't
    solve all the problems, however. Even if such a collision had
    occurred, and even if a land mass the size of the Bay of Biscay
    was tossed into the air, how could it cause an ice age?
         Ideas were tossed back and forth by scientists such as Carl
    Sagan and Brian Toon. Almost as if by fate, Mt. St. Helens
    erupted in 1980, just a few hundred miles away. Before it was
    over, 1/4 cubic mile of dust was tossed into the air. Some towns
    downwind remained completely dark for days.
         In 1982 a volcano in Mexico blew. This time scientists were
    able to photograph and track the eruption by satellite. It took
    only 3 weeks for the dust cloud to circle the earth.
         These studies showed exactly how the dust could have been
    distributed, and how long it would take. As things often are in
    science, these findings generated new studies
         A layer of meteoritic particles 1 cm thick was found in
    rocks all over the world dating 65 million years - just about
    right for the disappearance of the dinosaurs. Studies of the
    rings in trees showed frost damage in a perfect accordance with
    large volcanic eruptions. These things proved that large surface
    explosions - even fairly small ones - can affect the climate all
    over the world.

                             Nuclear Winter

         The effects of an all-out nuclear war began to be studied,
    rather than just the effects of single warheads. All the
    information gathered was fed into a computer. The TAPS model was
    developed, named after the four scientists who originated it
    (Turko, Ackerman, Pimentel (?), and Sagan).
         This model indicated that a number of things would happen in
    a major nuclear exchange.
         There would be the obvious and known damage from the actual
    explosions. It has been predicted than about 1/4 of the populace
    would die in the first attack. Every major city would be
    destroyed in this attack. Communications and transport would
    cease.
         Clouds of radioactive dust would spread. According to the
    department of defense, an average attack on the United States by
    the Soviets would throw up enough dust to almost immediately
    cover all of the United States and most of Canada and Mexico.
    They further predict that half the population would be dead in
    the first 30 days - either from the explosions or from radiation
    related diseases. Before even the beginnings of recovery - if
    this ever happens - some sources predict that as much as 90% of
    the population will be gone.
         This is the bright side. It has been known and established
    for quite a few years. The new studies seem to indicate that it
    doesn't stop here. That cloud of radioactive dust will be tossed
    high into the stratosphere, where it will remain for many years.
    Adding to it will be millions of tons of smoke caused by the
    firestorms and other fires.
         Within a week virtually the entire northern hemisphere would
    be blanketed. Of the sunlight that now reaches the surface, 99%
    would be blocked, and either absorbed by the cloud or reflected
    back into space by it. Surface temperature would drop to -23C on
    the average, with many areas being much colder. This would
    continue for several months or longer.
         Crops would fail, with no harvest at all for 6 months to 2
    years ata minimum. (Some predict that the worldwide freeze would
    last longer enough to permanently kill off all plants.) Plankton
    in the ocean would die, which in turn will stop the food chain
    (no more fish) and the oxygen cycle (no more breathable air).
         Since the oceans will hold their heat long after the the
    land has frozen, there is a massive difference in temperature.
    Differences in temperature is what causes the winds. In this
    case, the winds along the coasts - blowing from inland and
    towards the water - would reach almost hurricane velocity and
    would remain there as long as the ocean was relatively warm.
         It used to be thought that the southern hemisphere would be
    safe. The same temperature difference that causes the coastal
    wind will create unprecendented air movement between the
    hemispheres. Within a few months, the southern hemisphere will be
    likewise covered and frozen.
         In short, within a year or so, there will be nothing alive
    anywhere on the earth except a few microbes. (Some have predicted
    that even these will die, with the earth being literally
    sterilized by radiation.)

                              The Good Side

         It sounds frightening. It IS! But this is also why the new
    findings are so nice.
         It's no longer feasible to have a nuclear war. If the
    Soviets attacked the United States (or vice versa) and we just
    sat back and did nothing at all, it wouldn't matter. The studies
    show that if just 10% of the nuclear weapons of either side are
    set off, nuclear winter sets in.
         Imagine two enemies standing in a room that neither can
    leave. (We can't leave earth, after all.) Each has a .357 in hand
    (which represents non-nuclear arms). Either one can shoot the
    other. This isn't enough power to satisfy either, so each gets a
    stick of dynamite (representing nuclear weapons here), then 20
    sticks, then 50 sticks. (At present the stockpile of nuclear
    weapons is enough to kill everything on earth about 100 times
    over.)
         Is either one likely to light up a stick of dynamite? If one
    does, the explosion will kill both the attacked and the attacker.
    It's suicide to make use of the dynamite. It can't be used
    against the enemy without killing yourself. It doesn't matter if
    the enemy lights his stick of dynamite or not - it doesn't matter
    if either of the two light 1 stick or all 50. The results are the
    still the same.
         This is essentially the situation we're in now.
         The Soviets have done studies on their own. Their findings
    were nearly identical to those of scientists from the United
    States. For the first time in a LOONNGGG time, both sides are
    moving in the same direction - at least the scientists are. And,
    the Soviet scientists are not being squelched.
         So, instead of being disheartening, the idea of nuclear
    winter just might be the brightest prospect we've had in all too
    long. Progress may be slow. Meanwhile, the major powers are
    coming to realize that nuclear warfare simply cannot work. Not
    just because of first strike versus retaliation, but because even
    without retaliation, it's all over.

    UNTIL NEXT TIME

         Your comments and questions on this week's topic are most
    welcome. In fact, I'm purposely looking for them.
         Don't let the subject be depressing, though. As I said in
    the final part, things haven't looked this good in years. The
    chances of having a nuclear war have decreased, rather than
    increased. The SALT talks did nothing to reduce the risk. The
    present findings have. (Would YOU light that stick of dynamite?)

         So, think about it. And respond!

    See ya next time!

Zephyr Magazine is © Gene Williams. All rights reserved.