                                  T H E

                               Z E P H Y R

                      __     M A G A Z I N E
                     {__]++++++++++++++++++++++++++[]
                     Issue #12                4-19-86

                A weekly electronic magazine for users of
                      THE ZEPHYR II BBS (894-6526)
                    owned and operated by T. H. Smith

                        Editor - Gene B. Williams

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                                (c) 1986

    THIS ISSUE:

       In 1945 the world was "treated" dramatically to mankind's
    newest and greatest invention. One instant a city stood, and
    in the next there was only radioactive rubble and bodies.
       Japan had been trying to surrender, but were refused. The
    two cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were left alone in the
    massive bombing raids so that the effects of a nuclear blast
    could be better studied. Many experts also point out that the
    two atomic bombs were dropped, not to defeat Japan but to show
    our new enemy, the Soviet Union, what we could do to them, with
    primary proof of this being that the Soviet fleet was ready to
    invade from the north just as the bombs were being dropped.
       Three years later the Soviets had their own atomic bomb.
    Not long after this the United States had the first H-bomb, so
    powerful that the previously frightening atomic bomb was merely
    the fuse. This time the Soviets were less than a year behind.
       During all of World War II a total of 3 megatons (3 million
    tons, or 6 billion pounds) of TNT was exploded. Today a
    perfectly average warhead is at least this powerful - and there
    are some 20,000 such average warheads. Imagine all of the
    devastation and death of World War II (1939-1945) going of in
    a fraction of a second - then multiply that by 20,000 and you'll
    have some idea of World War III.
       Recent studies indicate that between 1% to 2% of the existing
    arsenal would be enough to trigger a nuclear winter of sufficient
    effect to make extinct literally everything on earth. Other
    studies indicate that far less than than this (1/10th of 1% by
    a recent FEMA study) would be enough to annihilate America beyond
    recognition.
       What can be done about such a threat?

                                   SDI

       On March 23, 1983 President Reagan was giving a speech to the
    American public. He talked of many things. Then he began breaking
    away from the prewritten material and announced a grand new
    project that he called the Strategic Defense Initiative. Almost
    instantly the press jumped on the idea and labeled it, The Star
    Wars scheme. Later reports showed that his own cabinet and staff
    watched on in horror as Reagan went against every report and study
    to date.
       Reagan's claim was that this new plan would provide "new hope
    for our children in the twenty-first century," and went on to say
    that it would render "nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete" and,
    "no longer would our countrymen have to rely on retaliation to
    protect them from nuclear attack."
       The initial reaction of the American public was highly favor-
    able. After all, who WOULDN'T welcome an end to the arms race
    and an end to the threat of worldwide extinction? For 30 years we'd
    been living in constant fear, and watching our income dwindle and
    dwindle as more and more of our tax dollars went to pay for
    national defense. By 1983 and Reagan's announcement, the average
    American was paying more than a third of all income to taxes, and
    of this approximately half was going to the defense budget. Even
    then, the national debt was increasing by an alarming rate and
    destining our country to bankruptcy.
       That figure has now gone up to 41% paid in taxes, with the
    defense budget being increased by half again, then half again,
    while other necessary services have been cut.
       And still the average American either supports the SDI idea,
    and/or has no concept of what it is really about.

                              What IS SDI?

       In 1981 a group known as the Heritage Foundation gathered
    together to discuss national defense. Among this group were such
    people as Edward Tell ("father of the H-bomb) and Joseph Coors
    (glug glug). The members of this group were right-wing advocates
    (blow 'em to shreds) and were also personal friends of Ronald
    Reagan. So close, in fact, that although they were not officially
    a part of the administration they came to be called Reagan's
    "Kitchen Cabinet."
       General Daniel Graham was one of the leaders of the group.
    When the original group split up, due to a disagreement between
    Teller and Graham. Teller was all for a space-based defense,
    but said that America should wait until the technology for
    such a system existed. Graham wanted the system NOW!
       Graham's new group was called "High Frontier." The plan
    was put together and submitted to the Pentagon, where it was
    immediately rejected. It was revised slightly and then
    submitted again.
       On November 24, 1982 Casper Weinberger (Secretary of
    Defense) wrote to Graham, saying that the system would not
    work, and that since the technology for it didn't exist,
    it would be ridiculous to support the project.
       The Congressional Office of Technology also got involved.
    Their report and subsequent recommendation to the President
    said that the idea presented "a defensive system of extremely
    limited capability" and then added that if the Soviets
    improved their missles as expected, the system would have
    "no capability."
       Despite this report, the report from Weinberger and also
    from Richard Cooper (Director of Defense Research Advanced
    Projects) from Dr. Richard DeLauer (Undersecretary of
    Defense), George Keyworth (Presidential Science Advisor) and
    many others, Reagan went ahead and announced to the American
    public - without forewarning to his staff - that the SDI
    project would begin.
       Alexander Haig later described the reasoning behind this
    announcement, and other things Reagan had been doing, as "a
    big PR splash that would make the President look like the
    greatest leader in America."

                             Misconceptions

       The initial favorable response of the American public - and
    the continuing support for it in some sectors - comes from
    misinformation of what the system is and does. Ask most people
    what SDI is, what it does, and how it's supposed to do it, and
    you'll get a grand variety of misinformed ideas.
       The system as proposed consists of three layers of defense.
    The first layer would be made up of 432 satellites in a geo-
    synchronous orbit. These would be armed with non-nuclear missles
    and some chemical lasers. Their purpose would be to fire at
    Soviet missles in their early-launch stage. An optomistic
    figure says that "up to one-third of the launched missles
    could be stopped."
       The next layer in the system is the only one for which
    present technology allows to exist. It is made up of ABM and
    other missles (non-nuclear). This has been said to be capable
    of stopping approximately half of what missles remain.
       Finally comes the third tier - particle-beam weapons on
    the ground to shoot down those missles that have made it to
    America. The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment
    (OTA) has estimated that the technology needed to build and
    install this third tier is at least 2 decades away.
       What most people don't realize is that the system is not
    designed for, nor is it being planned for, defense of
    civilian targets. Its sole function is to protect our missle
    silos, and to give us more time to launch those missles.
       According to the plan as accepted, the system *might* be,
    but probably won't be (due to cost), expanded to protect
    cities and other civilian targets until sometime in the middle
    of the next century - if then.
       So, even if the technology DID exist (it doesn't), the system
    will not, and was never intended to, protect the citizens.

                             How Effective?

       Even the most optomistic estimates say that if the system
    was in effect right now, and if the Soviets don't add more
    weapons, and don't make any improvements, the total system
    would be capable of shooting down, "somewhere between 50%
    and 90% of the incoming weapons." General Graham has made
    the claim that it would be capable of stopping as much as
    95%.
       Keep in mind that the estimates assume that only missle
    silos are targeted, that the Soviets do nothing to advance
    their present weapons systems, and make no efforts to knock
    out the system itself. Change the attack pattern to attack
    cities and the system simply will not be able to work as
    well because most of the system can't be moved or reaimed
    to protect those cities.
       Nor does the system have any effect on missles that move
    much faster than what the Soviets presently have. (At the
    moment, many of their older missles are being replaced
    by new models with "hotter" rocket engines.)
       The first layer - the 432 satellites - are extremely
    vulnerable to attack. They can be shot down easily, since
    they are virtually defenseless. But even that isn't needed
    since all the Soviets have to do is to plant space mines
    somewhere near (undetectable). Push a button and layer one
    flakes out in single burst.
       Finally, nothing in the system can detect or deal with
    anything but missles that use a ballistic path that goes
    outside the atmosphere. Bombers and cruise missles, for
    example, won't even be noticed by it.
       What all that means together is summed up well by the
    report from OTA which (to repeat) described the system
    as having "no capability . . . even with no Soviet effort
    to overcome the defense."

                          Even the Bright Side

       Assume that some miracle happens and a whole new science
    is discovered suddenly, and Graham's optomistic estimates
    of the system being capable of stopping up to 95% of the
    incoming is true. (That's assuming a LOT!)
       FEMA and other groups have released statistics concerning
    the effects of a nuclear war. Even the Pentagon has officially
    accepted the figures that 1% of the existing weapons could
    trigger a nuclear winter.
       So, with a string a miracles, there would still be 5 times
    more incoming than is needed to kill every living thing in
    the Northern Hemisphere, and possibly in the entire world.
    The effects of the nuclear winter would be made worse since
    installment of the system would mean a new targeting
    strategy on the part of the Soviets, with the attention being
    shifted to the unprotected targets - the cities.

                                The Cost

       The first estimates of the cost to build the system came
    from General Graham. His estimate was $100 billion. This
    was instantly recognized as a gross under-estimate, and a
    newly revised figure of 1 trillion dollars was made by
    OTA and other governmental study groups. Others have said
    that by the time the system is installed the cost could
    be twice this much.
       When Dr. Teller first heard Graham's estimate he said
    (after commenting something along the lines of, "NO WAY!")
    "The Soviets can get rid of High Frontier for $10 billion."
       The ratio then would be 10:1 - with every dollar we sink
    into it being negated by 10c.
       Many scientists say that Teller is being too generous.
    The pessimistic estimate are more of a ratio like 100:1 -
    for every $100 billion we spend on the system, the Soviets
    could make it useless by spending just $1 billion.
       How does that work?
       First, planting space mines is considerably less expensive
    than putting up the sophisticated satellites. If the satellite
    costs $10 million, the mine to blow it away would cost something
    more like $100,000.
       Next, it's relatively cheap to build a decoy missle. If
    the SDI system is capable of bringing down 9500 incoming
    weapons of the exising 10,000 of the Soviets, all they have
    to do is build another 5000 or so empty missles. The system
    would be incapable of detecting the difference between a
    real missle and one of the decoys. With relatively little
    cost, the Soviets could easily hopelessly overload the
    systems already limited capabilities.

                              One Trillion

       As mentioned above, a conservative estimate to pull the full
    system up is around 1 trillion dollars. (Also as mentioned,
    there are some who say that it will be considerably higher -
    including some estimates that say that SDI alone will double
    the national debt.)
       It has become an everyday thing to think of big numbers in
    government spending. An appropriation of $25 million is almost
    petty cash. Appropriations in the billions of dollars are
    common, and barely cause an eyebrow to raise.
       Get out your calculator and play with the number 1 trillion.
    That's 1,000,000,000,000 (1x10 to the 12th in scientific
    notation).
       If you were spend a million dollars a day, it would take
    you a million days (more than 2700 years) to spend that
    trillion dollars.
       I don't know if this is true, because I don't know how
    thick a dollar bill is. But, one figure on what a trillion
    dollars is says that if you had a stack of that many dollar
    bills, it would be some 150,000 miles tall.
       Imagine what could be done with a trillion dollars (instead
    of putting it into a system that won't work anyway).
       That's enough to fund NASA at the 1984 level for 143 years.
    It's enough to pay all money provided to education for 67
    years.
       With it, we could have several permanent bases on the moon,
    on Mars and in the asteroid belt - we could start mining and
    manufacturing operations thus ending raw material shortages
    and much of the pollution back on earth - and there would
    still be enough money left over for a variety of other space
    related studies and tasks, and to turn our education system
    from being presently known as one of the worst in the world
    back to being not just one of the best but THE best.
       With a trillion dollars you could build 10 million homes
    worth $100,000 each.
       As Carl Sagan said, "Why do we always and automatically
    equate national security with warfare?"
       We're a nation going deeper and deeper into bankruptcy.
    According to recent reports, America has the lowest growth
    rate of any industrial country in the world, and thus very
    little financial security for our future. We also have an
    educational system that is falling apart, and thus reducing
    our future security along those lines. Social security is
    apparently doomed, which means that you'll have no security
    in your old age, either.
       Looking at it in reverse is actually more realistic.
       Where will that trillion dollars come from? It's not going
    to appear by magic. Either taxes will have to be greatly
    increased (possibly doubled - from the 43% we pay now up
    to 86%?)
       Since that kind of increase will never be tolerated by
    the American public, the tax increases will still come, but
    in lower increments. That still won't pay the bill, though.
       Consequently, the only way to get the money to pay for it
    is to cut other services and appropriations. And you couldn't
    do it by just a little.
       In 1984 (my most recent figures right on hand - sorry) the
    total federal income was about 666 billion. Expenditures for
    that year were about 842 billion, of which 224 billion went
    directly into defense. (Calculate it and you'll see that in
    that year we also went an additional 176 billion into debt.)
       The defense budget has increased by a factor of approximately
    35% per year since Reagan took office. And since SDI is a part
    of that, you KNOW that appropriation cuts won't occur there. So,
    subtract the defense budget of 224 billion from the total
    expenses of 842 billion, and you end up with 618 billion.
       What that comes down to, then, is that to pay for Star Wars
    ALL services would have to be suspended for about 2 years. Cut
    ALL services by 50% and it would take 4 years.
       That won't happen, either.
       Think about it for a moment. How *will* it be paid? How do
    you come up with, quickly, half again as much as the total
    federal income?

                          End of the Arms Race?

       One of the claims for the value of SDI is that it will
    bring an end to the arms race, making the claim that the scheme
    will make nuclear weapons useless and obsolete.
       If you've been following the information given above, you'll
    know that this isn't the case.
       First, there would be a massive upswing in missle production.
    The ABMs in that second tier of the the overall system would have
    to be manufactured. That means a minimum of 10,000 missles right
    away, plus additional missles for each of the new missles that
    the Soviets will build.
       And they'll be building a LOT of them. Many will be decoys -
    empty missles. But, we'd have to build armed missles for each
    of theirs, decoy or not.
       The presently planned system is meant to handle the existing
    10,000 missles of the Soviets. So they build 10,000 more. Now
    our first batch of 10,000 won't be enough, so we double it
    to 20,000 - and then so do they (except that they can then
    build fakes, for a lot less money).
       Consequently, SDI won't stop the arms race. It will escalate
    it far beyond anything it has been so far.

                             *IF* It Worked

       Some people have made the claim that the Soviets are upset
    because the Star Wars scheme will end their ability to threaten
    us. The fact of the matter is that they know full well that
    the system won't work, and is easily and cheaply defeated in
    any case.
       In 1972, President Nixon and Congress formally agreed to a
    ban on any ABM (anti-ballistic missle) studies. This treaty was
    and is the crux of all armament treaties with the Soviet Union.
    For the SDI scheme to work, every arms agreement and treaty
    to date would have to be broken.
       Just the fact that this is being considered as so far
    seriously jeapordized continuing peace talks. (How would YOU
    feel about talking to someone who is about ready to break
    every promise he has made?) Some people claim that the Soviets
    are upset because the system will stop their threat. Actually,
    they know as well as our own experts that the system won't
    work. It's the breaking of treaties so callously that they
    are upset about.
       So is much of Europe. They agree that the system won't
    work. But they say that IF it could work, they would join
    with the Soviet Union in protest. The reason this time is
    that IF it worked, the United States would be protected
    behind its own umbrella, thereby guaranteeing that any conflict
    would take place solely in Europe, and particularly on top
    of the heads of our allies.
       Worse yet, even IF the system looked like it was going to
    work, the Soviets would never allow it to be put into place.
    At this point in time, only the United States has an
    official preemptive strike stance. We have declared, for the
    record, that we wouldn't hesitate to use nuclear weapons in
    a conflict, nor would we hesitate to make the first strike
    if conditions warranted that.
       Again put yourself in the place of the Soviets. Your most
    bitter enemy has already told you that he'd blow you away in
    a second if need be. Now he is about to put up a screen that
    could make him invulnerable to attack. From behind that screen
    he can do whatever he damn well pleases, and there won't be
    anything you can do about it.
       We, as Americans, don't believe that we would attack the
    Soviet Union first. That's not the point, however. The point
    is that THEY believe that we would.
       IF the system seemed to be workable, and IF we were about
    to put it into effect, the chances are very good that they
    would make that desparate last-ditch effort to strike while
    they still could.

                               Conclusion

       To list the points again: (they may not be in order - I'm
    in a hurry:

    1) The experts have almost unanimously declared that the SDI
    scheme flat out won't work. The Pentagon turned it down twice
    as being useless and extremely dangerous.
    2) Contrary to what most people think, it will NOT protect
    the citizens, and is not meant to.
    3) The best estimates by the staunchest supports of the idea
    would still let through 5 times more than are needed to
    annihilate all of America.
    4) At a cost of 1 trillion dollars (plus), it will greatly
    reduce national security on a financial level.
    5) That cost would continue, but on a more one-sided level.
    While America became financially weaker, the Soviets would
    be becoming financially stronger (through having to spend
    less).
    6) SDI doesn't end the arms race, it increases it.
    7) Since it will encourage a first strike against the United
    States, it reduces national security in that sense as well.
    8) To institute it the United States would have to violate
    literally every arms agreement and treaty ever signed.

       So, what's good about the Star Wars scheme - other than it
    making a few people VERY wealthy? And the rest of us more poor
    than we already are?
       If ever there was a plan to ruin America while making our
    enemy strong, this is it.
       Carl Sagan in a speech to the NRDC described the Star Wars
    scheme quite well.
       "You have to be looney tunes if you bet your future on
    this idea."

    UNTIL NEXT TIME

       There has been a great deal of talk on the boards recently
    about war and etc. And here we went one more time.
       Some of you are getting bored with it, no doubt. But at the
    same time, how CAN you be disinterested in something that could
    spell the end of America?
       In my mind, the two single most important topics in the world
    right now are nuclear winter and SDI. Nuclear winter, accepted
    and then ignored by the Pentagon, demonstrates that a nuclear
    war of even limited scale could very easily make most or all
    species on earth extinct - and mankind almost certainly.
       SDI is a defensive system that threatens to bring about that
    nuclear winter, and bring us to financial ruin while doing it.
       If you don't care about your country, shouldn't you at least
    be concerned about your own future?

    Next Week:

    At this point you'll just have to wait and see what comes up.
    My parents are coming into town for a visit, so I will be
    rather busy.

    If you haven't already paid your "subscription fee" for the
    magazine, why not do it this week. That "fee" is to bring in
    one new user.
    And don't forget to participate - not just here but on all of
    the boards.

Zephyr Magazine is © Gene Williams. All rights reserved.