


                    A LOOK AHEAD:  
               VIEWS OF TOMORROW'S FBI                            

                          By

                  Richard Sonnichsen
                    Gail O. Burton 
                         and 
                     Thomas Lyons           


     The law enforcement community of tomorrow will serve a 
society far different than that of today.  Indeed, the 
differences may be so dramatic that law enforcement organizations 
which are not prepared for the future may be unable to respond to 
those communities they are sworn to serve.  Change is inevitable, 
and it will impact on every facet of society, including its 
social structure, economic policies, demo-graphics, technology, 
and a myriad of other areas. Accordingly, law enforcement should 
commit sufficient resources today to plan for future changes.     

     With this in mind, the Office of Planning,  Evaluation and 
Audits (OPEA) was tasked to conduct a study intended to describe 
the FBI's working environment in the year 2000. The study 
entitled ``FBI 2000: A Law Enforcement View'' was developed to 
provide senior FBI management with the perceptions of other 
Federal, State and local law enforcement officers about the 
changing relationships  between themselves and the FBI of the 
future. At the outset, OPEA  conducted extensive interviews and 
surveys of senior FBI executives to determine issues that will 
face the FBI in the future. Issues pertaining to budget, 
personnel, technology, science, and international investigations 
were among those raised during this preliminary internal 
assessment phase.                                                 

     With this internal view as a framework for the study, OPEA 
began the external data collection phase.  The strategy included  
conducting interviews with law enforcement executives, 
academicians, and criminal justice consultants. OPEA selected 
interview sites that provided a geographical cross section of the 
United States and key international areas. Selection of specific 
interviewees was made after consultation with FBI Training 
Academy personnel, respected academicians and FBI field division 
managers. Criteria for interviewee selection relied heavily on a 
consensus perception of the progressiveness each individual 
institution demonstrated. OPEA Special Agents visited, in the 
United States and internationally, 50 different law enforcement 
agencies, 9 colleges/universities, and 4 criminal justice 
consulting firms.                                                 

     The study participants were asked to consider their 
relationship with the FBI in three major areas:  (1) Operations 
and investigations, (2) training, and (3) technology and law 
enforcement services. Based on their knowledge and expertise, the 
respondents were asked to predict how their agencies' 
relationships with the FBI may evolve during the next century. 
Further, the interviewees were also asked to comment on any 
issues that they believed would impact the FBI in the future. 

     This article will report the highlights of this qualitative
study.  With the above three areas as a starting point, several
areas of emphasis for the FBI of the future evolved from the
study:  Operations, training, technology and science, budget,
legislation, international concerns, and privatization. What
follows is a compilation of the respondents' opinions and
suggestions based on what they viewed to be a predictable
environment for the future FBI.
        
OPERATIONS

     The future FBI should become an informational repository for 
all categories of reactive crime. In fulfilling this role, the 
FBI should assemble a national clearinghouse of criminal 
information, statistics, and a modus operandi (MO) data base that 
would be available to all members of the law enforcement 
community. Moreover, joint operations between local police 
departments and the FBI were predicted to increase and to target 
specific crimes, such as drug trafficking and street gangs. Those 
respondents supporting the joint operations concept speculated 
that increased efficiency and economy will be a likely result to 
all who participate in such future ventures.                      

TRAINING

     Based on cost effectiveness and efficiency, the most 
acclaimed training program for local law enforcement, according 
to the study, is the FBI's ``Train the Trainer Program.'' This 
program promotes the development of self-sufficiency in police 
training as officers who receive this initial training become 
organizers of similar training programs within their own 
agencies.  This program was also regarded by many responding 
police executives as an effective vehicle to standardize law 
enforcement procedures of the future.                             

     According to the data collected, there exists a void in 
senior management training for local law enforcement agencies. 
This training void should be filled by the FBI.  Specifically, 
senior managers of local police agencies envision regional 
management training that is shorter in duration and more advanced 
than courses currently provided at the FBI National Academy's 
first-tier training for law enforcement executives.               

TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE

   The FBI has traditionally been a leader in sophisticated 
technological and scientific research with practical law 
enforcement applications. Local law enforcement, according to the 
results of the study, expects the FBI to continue to conduct 
research and development of future forensic and technological 
advances.  The FBI Training Academy initiatives in computer 
science, career criminal research, and offender behavioral 
profiling were frequently cited as successful examples of 
research and development achievements that are in keeping with 
these future expectations and needs of the local law enforcement 
community.                                                        

     Beyond these core issues (operations, training, and 
technology and science), interviewees provided insights about 
such future issues as budget, legislation, international 
concerns, and privatization.                                      

BUDGET

     International, Federal, and local law enforcement executives 
were in consensus that obtaining adequate funding in the future 
will be difficult. In particular, they anticipate that  there 
will be increased competition for decreased funding within the 
Federal law enforcement community. On the other hand, some 
respondents from the academic community and private sector 
envision future budgetary increases for Federal law enforcement. 
 
     Should funding decline, one response suggested by many law 
enforcement executives would be to rely more on technological 
innovation and, where possible, to share expenses with other 
agencies.  Also, joint technological development achieved by the 
FBI and other law enforcement agencies could result in reducing 
individual agency research and development outlays, while 
ensuring greater interagency system-and-equipment compatibility. 

     Another suggested response to diminishing budgetary
resources was to combine forces to more efficiently and cost
effectively attack mutual crime problems. Merging personnel
could take several forms, including expanding the existing task
force concept now employed by Federal, State and local agencies.
According to many foreign law enforcement executives, more
complex strategies would include the exchange of FBI Special
Agents with personnel of international law enforcement agencies.
This was also viewed as a positive response to growing
international crime.

LEGISLATION

     To address evolving crime problems, future legislative 
initiatives will be required in order to equip adequately the FBI 
and other Federal, State, local and international law enforcement 
agencies.  Respondents believed that the FBI will be expected to 
initiate and secure passage of such future legislation.           

     One specific area that will receive future international 
legislative attention is computer crime.  In fact, in a July 
1988, report, the International Chamber of Commerce articulated a 
number of topical issues that needed to be addressed in order to 
combat this growing crime problem. Accordingly, investigation of 
computer crime, as well as the more traditional international 
crimes, including drug trafficking, terrorism and fraud, is most 
difficult due to the incompatibility of legal systems among 
involved countries.  For example, a criminal act in one country 
may not be a criminal act in another country. Therefore, efforts 
to standardize laws across international boundaries will remain a 
priority well into the future.                                    

     Even though compatibility of criminal law among nations is 
not yet a reality, there is reason for optimism. In 1988 the 
United Nations Conference for Narcotics Legislation resulted in a 
draft proposal entitled ``United Nations Convention Against 
Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and  Psychotropic  
Substances.'' This draft provides a strong legal basis for 
resolving many of the compatibility issues now present in the 
international arena.                                              

INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS

     Well into the future, law enforcement organizations of 
developed, industrialized nations will find that problems 
associated with increased global immigration will become 
aggravated. People from repressive and developing countries are 
increasingly searching for economic, political, and social 
freedom.  Moreover, inexpensive international air travel, an 
increase in multi-national corporations, an expanding base of 
international commerce, and economic interdependence among 
nations are important factors that have influenced increased 
global migration patterns.  The challenge posed to law 
enforcement now developing in the host countries is how to 
provide the full range of required law enforcement services to 
diverse communities.                                              

     Many of the compelling forces compressing the world and its 
peoples into closer personal and business associations are 
similarly pressing members of the international law enforcement 
community into new and innovative relationships. Due to its 
resource base, jurisdictional span, and operational expertise, 
the FBI is increasingly viewed as the U. S. law enforcement 
agency that should achieve and sustain a prominent leadership 
presence in the international law enforcement arena. One such 
force, the increasing international character of crime, will most 
certainly generate the need for more FBI international 
cooperation and stronger liaison programs. Other important 
features of an expanding FBI international leadership role are 
likely to include laboratory assistance, technology sharing, 
information exchanges and reciprocal training initiatives. 
According to respondents, this role should also include FBI 
sponsorship of international symposiums where problems and new 
initiatives can be widely discussed.                              

     Another compelling force, the increased investment of 
foreign money into American businesses and properties, could well 
provide the financial basis on which international crime groups 
will expand their foothold in the United States.  This force will 
require the FBI to exchange criminal intelligence and criminal 
history information with members of the international law 
enforcement community on an ever- increasing scale.               

     There will also be a parallel need for the foreign law 
enforcement community to establish quid-pro-quo relationships 
with local law enforcement agencies in the United States in order 
to exchange essential criminal intelligence. According to study 
findings, the FBI is in an excellent position to serve as a 
valuable intermediary in this regard because foreign law 
enforcement agencies often find the overlapping character of U.S. 
law enforcement agencies confusing. For example, foreign agencies 
get confused when several U.S. law enforcement agencies, each 
with legitimate and justifiable investigative interests, make 
separate inquiries on the same criminal investigation.  Further, 
when a U.S. law enforcement officer visits the headquarters of a 
foreign agency to transact business without advanced notice to 
that agency, additional confusion occurs.                         

     From another perspective, the United States has 
traditionally experienced crime trends 5 to 10 years before they 
are encountered in other countries. Accordingly, many believe 
that the FBI should host international discussions on crime 
trends with appropriate foreign and U.S. law enforcement 
officials. The purpose of these discussions would be to provide 
results of crime trend analysis and to share information 
regarding successful and unsuccessful strategies used against 
various crime problems.                                           

POLICE PRIVATIZATION

     One issue that repeatedly surfaced during interviews with 
law enforcement executives worldwide was the trend toward police 
privatization. While some law enforcement executives view this 
trend with great concern, others see much benefit. A number of 
senior police officials speculate that the future police 
community will separate into three distinct strata public, 
private and corporate. This stratification will continue to 
evolve from the present trend toward police privatization.        
                                                                  
     PUBLIC

     Public police agencies may well be victimized in the future 
by underfunding, understaffing, lack of proper equipment, and 
inadequate training. These conditions will encourage a trend 
toward privatization. It was further speculated by respondents 
that this underfunding of some public police organizations may 
impede their ability to attract or retain well-educated 
applicants, thus diminishing future expectations of high 
performance and professional standards. Moreover, due to the 
growth and effectiveness of private and corporate police 
functions, public police departments will find their services 
relegated more toward the problems of the urban poor.             

     PRIVATE
                                                           
     On the other hand, private police departments will be 
organized to service the more affluent segments of our society, 
and officers associated with those departments will be expected 
to adhere to high professional standards.  Respondents believed 
that these officers may likely be better  educated, trained, 
equipped, and paid than their public counterparts.                

     CORPORATE

     The growth of corporate policing has established what may be 
regarded as quasi-criminal justice systems in many of our major 
corporations. The expansion of this phenomenon is expected to 
continue well into the future. Corporate security investigators 
and auditors already conduct investigations regarding a wide 
range of financial crimes, including credit card fraud, computer 
fraud, and embezzlement.  In many cases, corporations, not the 
courts, decide the disposition of these crimes.  For example, 
major corporate embezzlement, reaching into hundreds of thousands 
of dollars, often results only in the forced resignation of the 
offender, not prosecution in a court of law.                      

     Corporations lack confidence in the ability of law 
enforcement to address these investigations in a manner that will 
protect sensitive corporate business interests. In recognition of 
these circumstances, the law enforcement community should seek to 
engage in closer and more effective working relationships with 
the major corporations in order to better understand each other's 
values, motivations, and roles. Only through greater 
understanding and mutual trust will essential law enforcement 
relationships with corporate America be built.                    

CONCLUSION

     What exactly will the working environment of the FBI and law 
enforcement be in the year 2000? No one can be sure; however, 
each member of the law enforcement community must carefully 
contemplate its evolving role and responsibilities.  
Accordingly, each must initiate a comprehensive plan for the 
expected future.  Such a plan must address several factors, 
including the development of a clear understanding of the 
community to be served, the potential for change over time, and 
the projection of the future crime trends. Additionally, any plan 
for the future must face the likelihood of dwindling budgets, 
expanding international relationships, and increased police 
privatization.  While the future for neither the FBI nor any law 
enforcement agency can be certain, it can be planned for 
responsibly by men and women with courage and vision.             


About the authors:

     Deputy Assistant Director Richard C. Sonnichsen, Unit Chief/
     Special Agent Gail O. Buron, and Special Agent Thomas Lyons
     are assigned to the FBI's Office of Planning, Evaluation and
     Audits at FBI Headquarters in Washington, DC.
