This article appeared in the May 12, 1992 issue of PC MAGAZINE, and is copied
here without permission-as if we really cared!

THE SOFTWARE PIRACY BLUFF
By: John C. Dvorak

People still copy software, and most of us who work for a living have little
sympathy for the plight of the software vendor.  After all, the software
industry will eventually generate more millionaires than any other business
in history.  Bill Gates, with a net worth of $7 billion, is now the richest
man in America, and his money was accumulated from scratch-zero-in 15 years
flat.  Meanwhile, the watch-dog Software Publishers Association (SPA) and the
Business Software Alliance (BSA) claim that whatever the software industry
sells, it loses at least 50 percent to pirates.  They keep changing the number,
but they like to say that if it's a $10-billion-a-year industry, then another
$10 billion goes to pirates.  In other words, Bill Gates should be worth twice
as much!

Let's examine Gates's net worth.  If you made $5 million dollars a year (and
few people do) and put it under your bed, it would take you 1,400 years to
achieve Gates's current net worth.  Here's another cute calculation: Forget
about interest.  If you lived to be 70, to achieve Bill Gates's current net
worth you'd have to make $100 million (that's got eight 0's in it!) each year
from the day you were born to the day you died.

At Microsoft there are something like 100 millionaires (maybe more).  It's
easy to go on and on about this.  Suffice to say that the public is not too
thrilled with overnight millionaires (or billionaires) who are whining that
they aren't making enough money because pirates are ripping them off.  To
expect a sympathy vote from the public is ludicrous.  When you consider the
wealth of Bill Gates, and how impossible it is to achieve such wealth, you have
to wonder who's ripping off whom.  While software serves a useful robotic
function, does it have to cost so much?  No way.

Meanwhile, in a never-ending attempt to coerce the world into paying more
money for software than is practical, the BSA is now attacking Germany.
According to a news report:
                            "In a submission to the US Trade Representative
regarding allegedly inadequate copyright protection, the BSA says Germany leads
its list of countries causing the world software industry's greatest revenue
loss from piracy...[With] 1990 losses of $1.86 billion, the BSA recommended
Germany be placed on the Priority Watch List by the International Intellectual
Property Alliance (The IIPA represents the copyright industries of software,
motion pictures, music, and books.)  The BSA said next in line for concern are
Italy and Taiwan, where it estimates total piracy losses in 1990 at $754 million
and $753 million, respectively."


The question on my mind is: How were these enormous figures for piracy--3.37
billion--calculated?  Out of thin air, that's how.  You guess how many illegal
copies might be made per unit sold and then mutiply that number by the total
legitimate sales in the country.

If copy protection were perfect, would the extra monies be realizd?  Unlikely.
The fact is that most users, instead of buying software that they earlier
copied, would use inexpensive shareware or bargain repalcements.  In fact, the
software industry would probably be sunk if piracy were eliminated.  Prices
would fall rapidly as market share was gained by the cheap alternative until
they dominated the software market altogether.  The loss figures are as bogus
as a $3 bill, and the software industry knows it.

The message that needs to be sent to the software industry can only be sent
by the users of bootleg software.  Go legit and buy those inexpensive
shareware and public-domain alternatives.  The industry will stop whining about
lost revenues from piracy when we refuse to play its game.



Transcriber's notes:
While Mr. Dvorak does not endorse piracy (publicly at least), This article
points out how the general public is so misinformed about supposed piracy
losses.  He also states that users should go legit and buy shareware.
Two problems with that. 1- A pirate never pays for his tech. 2- A pirate
would never be caught dead using shareware or PD unless it suited his purpose.
This article is somewhat encouragin for programmers, at least.  If you make the
alternatives, then you get the money.  Personally, I think shareware and PD
programs are about as much fun as watching what a mouse does when you set its
hair on fire--lightly roasted tastes like chicken.  I don't like PD, but it
serves my purposes.  When I do program I try to get whatever I can for my
work, but I couldn't live with myself if I became on of those bourgeois who
run the software industry.

What Mr. Dvorak says has definite economic solidity.  If demand for a product
goes down because of the presence of a less expensive substitute, the price
must also go down or it will fail.  A basic economic rule.

I brought this article to your attention not to make you stop whatever
"pirating" you may be doing. Indeed, if we stopped pirating software, what
would we do for fun?  This is here merely for your information and
entertainment. Even if people DID buy PD instead of normal software industry
programs, pirates would still be needed to "spread the wealth",if you get my
meaning.

We're here, we ain't going nowhere, we're moving right next door to YOU!
Piracy is here to stay.
Sorry Mr. Dvorak. (Yeah, right!)

